Quant Macro Investing

Risk Taking Disciplined

Tracking China bubble (if any)

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Chanos bearish on China

 

How to track if China is a bubble?  How to explain the following?  Would it just be a time lag between car sales  and gasoline sales?

(Politico.com) Gordon Chang, author of “The Coming Collapse of China,” wrote in Forbes at the end of October. “More important, it is unlikely that [third-quarter] expansion was anywhere near the claimed 8.9 percent.”

 

Chang argues that inconsistencies in Chinese official statistics — like the surging numbers for car sales but flat statistics for gasoline consumption — indicate that the Chinese are simply cooking their books. He speculates that Chinese state-run companies are buying fleets of cars and simply storing them in giant parking lots in order to generate apparent growth.

November 15, 2009 - Posted by | Case Study

1 Comment »

  1. http://vicktorcapitalist.com/blog/?p=2391

    “I travelled on some roads that weren’t there a year ago, fantastic roads I might add.”

    “Beijing and Shanghai have really nice airports (they were there a year ago), As a big user of Heathrow and JFK they are an embarrassment.”

    With respect to naysayers on China (Chanos view ); “these opinions are generally written by people that obviously don’t follow China. … They obviously don’t talk to people on the ground. I sent that article to my staff in China and they told me they cannot find enough cars to buy. I actually find those investor type blogs just typical not just of China but of the broader mood in this market.

    Comment by vicktorquant | November 16, 2009 | Reply


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